Description

This analysis provides a forecast of DIA prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.342983 0.375812 0.411686 0.454028 0.502940 0.558035 0.625314
2025-05-04 0.305650 0.348313 0.397725 0.459906 0.537119 0.631305 0.757238
2025-05-11 0.280257 0.329064 0.388194 0.466525 0.569824 0.704858 0.901018
2025-05-18 0.252569 0.303049 0.366266 0.453317 0.573615 0.739888 0.998904
2025-05-25 0.228942 0.279392 0.344242 0.436374 0.568705 0.760485 1.078232
2025-06-01 0.215964 0.268045 0.336775 0.437595 0.588386 0.818367 1.226604
2025-06-08 0.209414 0.264406 0.338955 0.452021 0.628593 0.913442 1.460666
2025-06-15 0.200543 0.256735 0.334599 0.456009 0.652687 0.985914 1.673893
2025-06-22 0.190879 0.247164 0.326587 0.453346 0.665241 1.040062 1.866571
2025-06-29 0.182257 0.238434 0.319022 0.450421 0.676607 1.093528 2.074851
2025-07-06 0.171705 0.226260 0.305440 0.436532 0.667043 1.105082 2.188808
2025-07-13 0.167297 0.222777 0.304681 0.443378 0.695145 1.196376 2.538274
2025-07-20 0.161546 0.217160 0.300535 0.444672 0.714190 1.275162 2.900074
2025-07-27 0.155906 0.211377 0.295712 0.444306 0.729970 1.350401 3.294783
2025-08-03 0.151440 0.207119 0.292994 0.447314 0.752768 1.447334 3.826461
2025-08-10 0.143855 0.197663 0.281293 0.433189 0.738684 1.451363 4.021777
2025-08-17 0.136298 0.187934 0.268654 0.416451 0.717342 1.433286 4.123079
2025-08-24 0.132622 0.184130 0.265580 0.417129 0.733318 1.516734 4.726292
2025-08-31 0.131500 0.184284 0.269061 0.430325 0.778501 1.692702 5.965962
2025-09-07 0.128727 0.181643 0.267620 0.433897 0.802382 1.814909 7.100424
2025-09-14 0.125093 0.177441 0.263253 0.431342 0.811506 1.894735 8.101960
2025-09-21 0.121644 0.173401 0.258953 0.428578 0.819791 1.974817 9.261395
2025-09-28 0.116770 0.166840 0.249930 0.415622 0.801353 1.959984 9.632615